Anthropic’s route to cheaper borrowing after its stock market listing looks harder than expected, after Blackstone, a leading investor in the company’s $63 billion chip financing, changed its view on the company’s credit. Blackstone now expects Anthropic to receive a high junk rating, in the double-B range, once it lists, reversing an earlier expectation that it could reach investment grade before the end of the year. Anthropic and Blackstone both declined to comment.
What changed
The shift was reported by the Financial Times, citing people familiar with the matter, and picked up by TechCrunch on October 30. Blackstone is the anchor investor in the financing deal, known as Project North Star. It told investors in that deal that Anthropic is now more likely to land in the double-B range.
That range is the top tier of speculative grade, one step below the line separating investment grade from junk. The reversal matters because Blackstone had previously said the opposite. Earlier guidance from the firm pointed to an investment-grade rating before 2027.
The new expectation rests on feedback from major credit rating agencies, according to the report. It suggests the upgrade Blackstone once expected will not arrive with the listing itself, leaving Anthropic to borrow on speculative-grade terms at first, at least until the agencies publish their own verdicts.
Inside Project North Star
Project North Star is the $63 billion financing that funds Anthropic’s access to chips, and its structure explains why the rating question is so sensitive. More than $42 billion of senior loans in the deal carry a guarantee from Broadcom, which co-develops the chips and holds an investment-grade rating of its own.
That backing makes the senior debt attractive to large institutional investors, who prize safety above yield. The remaining $18 billion sits in junior debt, backed by Anthropic’s lease payments rather than by a stronger partner. Junior debt is paid after senior loans if anything goes wrong.
Blackstone’s funds hold about $9 billion of that junior slice, at yields above 10 percent, according to the report. The higher return reflects the higher risk, and it is this slice that has already drawn speculative-grade assessments from smaller rating agencies.
Why a rating moves billions
A credit rating is, in effect, a report card for borrowers, and the line between investment grade and junk shapes who can lend. Many insurers and pension funds face limits on how much sub-investment-grade debt they can hold, so a junk rating shrinks the pool of buyers for new bonds.
Anthropic would then need to pay higher yields to attract the capital willing to take the risk, raising the cost of every future borrowing. That cost lands on a company planning spending on an extraordinary scale, with commitments running far beyond its current revenue.
Its public filing outlines more than $800 billion of computing infrastructure commitments running to 2045. The report puts its cash and equivalents above $112 billion, with investors expecting the listing itself to raise about $100 billion. Even with that cushion, higher borrowing costs would compound across the buildout.
What Anthropic has going for it
The rating picture is not yet settled, and that is the key caveat. The three agencies with the most influence over corporate borrowing costs, Fitch, Moody’s and S&P, have not issued formal ratings for Anthropic. What exists so far comes from smaller agencies alone.
Kroll Bond Rating Agency gave the junior debt a double-B-plus rating with a positive outlook, while Morningstar DBRS assigned it a double-B rating. The positive outlook leaves room for an upgrade, and bankers for Anthropic and rival OpenAI have reportedly pressed the major agencies for investment-grade ratings.
Anthropic also has a separate line of support in the talks over Nvidia’s possible backing for Nscale’s Anthropic debt, which would put another highly rated name behind its financing. None of that changes the rating yet, but it shows the company is not relying on a single lender’s view.
Why It Matters
The stakes go beyond one company’s borrowing costs, because Anthropic’s listing is a test of how the bond market prices the AI buildout. If a company with more than $112 billion in cash and a listing expected to raise about $100 billion still lands in junk territory, other AI firms planning similar spending will face the same question.
The rating agencies’ verdicts, due after the listing, will set a benchmark for the whole sector. There is also a tension at the heart of the story that investors will watch closely: a $1.475 trillion valuation estimate on one side, and spending commitments dwarfing current revenue on the other.
A junk rating does not mean Anthropic cannot borrow, but it means borrowing will cost more, and that cost will shape how fast it can build. For a company whose plans stretch to 2045, even a small difference in yield adds up to billions over the life of its debt.
Background
Anthropic filed to go public in the week of October 26, ahead of one of the year’s largest listings, and its financing arrangements have drawn scrutiny ever since. Blackstone’s revised expectation is a forecast, not a rating, and the agencies have yet to rule. Until they do, the company’s credit story remains an open question hanging over its debut.
Source: TechCrunch report, Financial Times report
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