Oppenheimer says interest in web and e-commerce software companies has improved ahead of third-quarter results, largely tracking a wider recent pickup in software, but worries persist that artificial intelligence could harm these businesses. Interest in commerce software is likely to remain tepid until business results stabilise or improve, according to the brokerage’s recent note. The note covers four companies, Shopify, Wix, GoDaddy, and Commerce.com, and its figures are expectations from talks with buy-side firms, not reported results. Shopify draws the most optimism, while Wix and GoDaddy face the AI squeeze most directly. This post is published on the site owner’s direct order, although the note is analyst commentary rather than a company announcement.
Shopify Leads The Optimism
Shopify, the commerce platform, carries the strongest expectations in the note. Oppenheimer, citing talks with buy-side firms, expected third-quarter revenue growth 2 to 3 percentage points above Wall Street’s 31.6% forecast, supported by continued strong consumer demand. Buy-side firms also expected gross merchandise volume growth of about 32% to 33%, versus a 30.3% forecast, and a free cash flow margin above 20%, versus 19.5%, following stronger second-quarter results. Oppenheimer raised its Shopify price target to $205 from $175. Those are expectations and a price target, not results: the test will be whether Shopify’s actual third-quarter numbers land above the forecasts the note describes.
Wix And GoDaddy Face The AI Squeeze
Wix, the web platform, looks steadier but more exposed. Bookings and revenue growth were expected to be in line with forecasts of 10% and 12% respectively. However, weaker demand from smaller designers and partners, as activity shifts toward AI tools such as Base44, could delay a return to faster growth. Operating profit and free cash flow margins were seen at 13% and 16%, after a workforce reduction of about 20% finalised in June. Some buy-side firms worried bookings growth could slip to the high single digits. GoDaddy, the domain and hosting company, shows a similar pattern: third-quarter bookings growth was expected at 5.0%, in line with forecasts, with revenue about 0.5 percentage point above forecasts and EBITDA higher than forecast. Management flattened second-half growth in its A&C business to high single digits, versus a 10.4% forecast, as it moves customers to its Airo product to address AI disruption. Oppenheimer said GoDaddy shares had been buoyed in part by a Financial Times report in late September that GoDaddy had received a takeover offer from Gen Digital.
Commerce.com Cuts Costs
Commerce.com, the e-commerce software firm, is the most cost-focused name in the note. Third-quarter revenue was expected to be in line with an $83.5 million forecast, with operating profit $2 million to $3 million higher after a workforce cut. In the second quarter, the company lowered the midpoint of its full-year revenue outlook by $18 million, citing a more cautious view of second-half new account bookings and softness in B2C replatforming. Its full-year outlook range was $336.5 million to $344.5 million. Management denied that its restructuring reflected weaker demand; the plan targets $60 million to $80 million in annualised savings. The tension in that paragraph is the story in miniature: a company cutting costs while insisting demand is not the problem, with the market left to judge from the next set of results.
Why It Matters
The note matters less as a prediction about four stocks than as a snapshot of how AI anxiety is filtering through web software. The worry is not abstract: activity shifting toward AI tools is already cited as a drag on Wix’s smaller designers and partners, and GoDaddy is actively moving customers to an AI product to defend its business. At the same time, the note’s optimism on Shopify shows the other side of the same coin, with strong consumer demand outweighing AI fears for now. For readers, the useful discipline is to treat every figure here as a forecast to be checked against reported results, including the raised Shopify price target, which is an analyst’s judgement rather than a market outcome. The AI question hanging over all four companies will be answered by those results, not by this note.
Background
Analyst notes like this one sit between company announcements and market outcomes: they collect buy-side expectations ahead of results, which is why their figures differ from Wall Street forecasts and from the numbers companies eventually report, a pattern familiar from AI-era borrowing and spending figures and from large AI valuations reported before deals close.
Source: Investing.com
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